SOLD at the very top! :D

Reasons I'm going long commodity XYZ

For:

1. The spot price has corrected -28% in the past 6 weeks.comparable to a -31% plunge during a 10 month span from a contract high in 2011 till 2012.

2. Schwager's seminal book has a cycle count chart that points to a possible cyclical low in 2016/2017

3.Recent export figures seem encouraging

 4. A bullish piercing pattern(60% success rate) has appeared in the daily chart on high volume

5. Hedge funds are quite heavily short while commercial buyers seem to have bullish positions

6. The AO oscillator shows bullish daily & weekly divergence.

7. The daily DeMark count is at 10 consecutive lows.

8. An incipient double bottom over a span of 23 months seems to be the likely scenario
  

Against:


1. The -28% drop is far from a -62% plunge in 6 months(from a contract high) during the Financial Crisis of '08 and a -52% plunge(from a contract high) in 6 months during 1996.

2. Cycles are assymmetric. Seasonal lows tend to occur from late August till early November.

3.There's no way of predicting how low the export figure can go in this uncertain economic climate.

4. Confirmation may be needed just to be on the safe side

5. The weekly hedge fund v commercial interest indicator failed during 1H 2014 and early 2016.