Saturday, November 12, 2016

Putting 2016's investment performance in perspective

Despite recent losses in wheat, corn and gold marring my 2016 record temporarily, this year has been very successful by many measures. Let me count the ways chronologically!

1. I liquidated my over 1 year long positions in WTK, KKB Engineering and BIG Industries at close to 52-week highs of $1.45, $1.83 and 68.7 c respectively on the early January spurt in shares of beneficiaries of US$ strength. They are now trading 27%, 26% and 32% LOWER than those sale prices as of November 11th and the intervening eleven months has seen the profitable redeployment of that capital into better assets(see 2.  below).



2. After holding 20k worth of shares in Cepco for over 2 years, I finally got my chance to exit my investment profitably in late January as the shares soared on a hugely profitable quarterly report, and I exited at prices ranging from $1.96 to as high as $2.44, redeploying that capital (together with 1. above) into SGX stocks, many of which outperformed well, including S i2i, OKP and the big kahuna : Sunright! I even re-entered less than a third of my original position in Cepco when that company disappointed in the subsequent quarterly report, obtaining under $1.58 a share in May when my original cost was just under $1.80!


I also exited my last holdings in TAS Offshore in February at 68.5c, on the very day the stock was beginning to tank in earnest, after buying at a 57.5c average in 2015. They now hover at around 30c!

3. The spectacular fall of Globetronics Technology from an all-time high of $6.96 in the opening days of the year must have curdled the blood of many a trend-following fund manager holding boatloads of the stock after a 4-year rise from around $1.00, but I capitalised on the meltdown in early May to eventually make SIX rounds of profit on the stock even as it zig-zagged down to a $2.75 low in September and collecting a dividend in the process. My cost was an averaged $2.99 and I hold a tenth of my original position, which now sits on a 20+% paper gain.


4. I earned FIVE rounds on descending tobacco stock British American Tobacco(M), earning well over a thousand in capital gains and dividends, holding a maximum of 210 shares for all the dividends paid throughout the year, but releasing 200 of these at prices of $51.44 and $50.36 respectively, and only increasing my holding to 44 shares for the final dividend of the year, leaving room for me to average down my cost even as the shares now tumble to $45!


5. My 3-year holding in blue-chip sin stock Heineken(M), formerly Guinness Anchor, which saw a paper loss that peaked at over $4,000 at their low of $12 in January 2015, was liquidated by 7/8ths at prices ranging from 17.68 to 18.07, reaping a capital gain of 4.4%, even though the dividends were plentiful in the interim.



6. Besides 1. , 2. and 5. , other stocks which I managed to exit at close to 52-week highs after holding for months up till a year include AirAsia (2.88), Cycle & Carriage Bintang (3.40), MTDACPI (38.5c), Lion Industries(52c), Ekowood(22.5c), Malayan Flour(1.643), DRB-Hicom ( 1.50 ) and Turiya (24.4c). 


These really helped increase my 'comfort level' with my portfolio in the face of a bear market.

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